Playing Musical Chairs: Could the Miami Heat miss the playoffs?
For all the doom and gloom that the last several games have been for the Heat it might soon be time to draw a collective breath, step back and take a look at what needs to be done going forward. But first, some perspective is needed on the Heat’s recent slide.
Yes, the Heat right now are playing some of their worst ball this season but it’s happening during a stretch of 23 games in 38 days with 16 of those on the road. Are the Heat just plain bad or can some of the recent sluggish and lackadaisical play be a result of this? During these 23 games, 6 games were played on the second nights of back-to-back sets losing 5 of them. Only once in that span did the Heat have 2 full days of rest between games and that came between the conclusion of a 6 game Western Conference road trip with the Heat playing 1 home game before leaving Miami again for 2 more road games.
Beyond the schedule however, the Heat are facing the reality that although they’ve been inconsistent from game to game, they’re remarkably consistent in being average. The season totals speak for themselves: a virtual tie between the Heat and their opponents in total points scored (4926/4932), rebounds (2086/2072) and assists (955/962). So while it’s obvious that the team seems destined to play .500 ball, is that enough to make it into the playoffs? The Bulls, Bobcats and the Raptors are all teams that started out weakly and have now leapfrogged the Heat in the conference standings. And while the Bucks started out strong and began fading through the course of the season just like the Head did, they’ve been making strides lately and easily beat the Heat last week in a home-and-home series.
The good news? That’s about it as far as competition goes in the East. If you add the top 4 teams in the East (Cavs, Celtics, Hawks, Magic) to the mix you only get 9 teams that are realistically vying for 8 playoff spots. The Sixers, Pacers, Pistons, Knicks, Wizards and Nets aren’t going anywhere and seem to have little chance of catching the rest of the teams in the standings. It was only a few weeks ago that the Heat seemed perfectly content in settling into the #5 spot for the duration of the season. That’s a sobering reminder that perhaps it’s best not to get too wrapped up in the standings in the middle of a long season. While it’s certainly possible that the Heat are the ones left without a chair when the season ends, it’s also likely that some if not all of their closest division rivals will soon come back down to earth too.
The Heat’s mantra, unveiled at the start of the season and before every home game, is “good enough, ain’t enough” which seems a bit too overzealous now. Even though we don’t know which teams will be going to the playoffs we at least now know that being average just might be “good enough”.
9 comments
Great write-up Surya.
I can’t help but look at some of the teams the Heat have beat since, well, let’s go with Christmas:
NY, Indy (x2), Atlanta, Phoenix, Golden State, Houston, Wizards, Sacramento, Detroit.
Meanwhile losing to New Orleans, San An (blow out), Bobcats (twice, second time=blowout), Cleveland (x2), Toronto, Milwaukee (x2), Chicago and Boston.
Beating mediocre teams at best and losing to the teams who have come on strong, gone on runs, and/or are just better right now than the Heat.
You make a great point about the 23 games in 38 days, but since the 7-2 start, the Heat have gone 17-25. For a team that is supposed to be “a .500 team”, that’s well below .500 since the nice start. The team just isn’t getting it done right now and starting today the team is getting a lot of negativity from those that follow them.
The truth is that this isn’t the same team as last year. Cook, Chalmers, and Jones have taken steps back and the additions of Arroyo, Q-Rich, Rafer, and Dorell (not addition, but he didn’t play much last year) – have only brought inconsistency.
You just don’t know what you’re going to get with each game. The black clouds are hovering and I definitely don’t want to add to the negativity but the Heat needs not just a quality win but a few of them. Something needs to be done to spark this team and end this nonsense.
[Reply]
Surya Fernandez Reply:
February 8th, 2010 at 11:00 pm
Thanks for the feedback. You make a good point about their recent 17-25 record (and I’m kicking myself for not including that) and the only thing I would add though is that the Heat going forward are fully capable of playing better…or at least good enough to maintain a .500 average and get into the playoffs. Hard to imagine they can keep playing this bad.
The inconsistency of the individual players will be addressed soon in a future post. I’m just getting started!
[Reply]
I read this blog as often as possible and look forward to it often so I must thank you for it. Has anyone seen the Heat article in the Miami Herald about Wade lashing out? It’s not looking good gentlemen and from one disgruntled heat fan to another, I don’t know if this will end positively with the team making a turn-around and going on a winning streak. It sounds like a division in the locker room which will only hinder the heat’s ability to work as a consistent unit (which they’re not great at to begin with). Pat Riley’s got to step in at some point and say/do something to ease everyone’s emotions before it gets out of control.
[Reply]
That’s the general consensus right now. The articles and reactions on the web this morning are all bad and take a negative outlook on the team as stands.
I agree, Riley put this team together and he needs to do something or address the situation. How can Wade not lash out? He’s spent his last 3 years with around-average players surrounding him while watching his fellow pals (Melo and Lebron) respective teams rise to the upper class of the league.
If this team can get a few wins back under it’s belt – things just might get better. Winning is the best remedy for this kind of situation. However – that’s on the team.
[Reply]
Andrew Reply:
February 8th, 2010 at 12:18 pm
Even his fellow pal “Chris Bosh” have a better year and team supporting cast!
Watch-out Wade might join the Raptors (he has same agent with CB4)
… i doubt that will happen but it is a pipe dream.
[Reply]
I;m not sure Toronto has the space to sign Bosh and Wade. Neither does Cleveland have the space to resign Wade and Lebron. Which is why Miami has been so “set up” to land Wade and a big player like CB4 or Lebron.
Yet, that all depends on how the CBA negotiations go down as some are looking to cut salaries by 75%. That could greatly affect the ability to retain just Wade. A lot of factors are coming into play as this season hits its stride.
[Reply]
Surya Fernandez Reply:
February 8th, 2010 at 11:15 pm
I would just add that CBA negotiations are VERY far away from being done and this was just the first salvo from the league. No question that salaries need to go down but the player’s association will fight tooth and nail before any agreement takes place. Maybe, just maybe, in these uncertain times Wade hopefully might realize that now is not the time to adjust to a new franchise and city. It’s not like this is going to be Wade’s last contract anyway.
[Reply]
D-wade needs to snap,he’s been holding it end for a while now not trying to point fingers but he needs to try to call people out maybe they’ll play beter,hell evey time I touch the ball and I have 2 to 4 player guarding me and I pass and nobody does anything
[Reply]
I think having already led his team to a championship (something none of his ’03 draftmates have done), plus becoming the first true franchise player in team history, make Wade that much more likely to put up with even a mediocre season. He knows Riley is cooking up trouble (in a good way), just like he did in ’04 when he brought Diesel to town – but something big has to happen this summer.
Of Wade’s six seasons, three were average (42, 44, and 43 wins, although two of those were exciting), one was a nightmare (15), and only two were great (59 and 52). This one is looking to be average yet again, which is starting to get real old. Wade is at his prime right now, and he’s wise to be realistic if he wants more rings. I’m sure he’ll get more in his career, so let’s do our part to make sure they’re here.
[Reply]
Leave a Comment