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The numbers and the odds of Miami keeping their draft pick

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Sometimes things are pretty complicated, so here we break down what you need to know about the Miami Heat's 2015 first round pick.

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Heat missed the playoffs for the first time since 2008, and they will be on the fence about their draft pick for another month. The NBA Draft Lottery selection will take place on May 19. At that point, the Heat will know what their first round pick is, and whether or not they get to keep it.

Here is the break down of everything you need to know about that pick.

The Pick
The Miami Heat traded away it's right to their 2015 first round pick to the Cleveland Cavaliers in exchange for LeBron James. The Cavaliers traded the pick to Minnesota in part of the package that included Kevin Love. Minnesota then sent the pick the 76ers in return for Thaddeous Young.

The pick is not to be exchanged if it is a top 10 pick. Right now, the Heat are seeded as the 10th pick, but that is before the NBA Draft Lottery.

How the Lottery works
There's always some confusion about this. There are 14 teams that don't make the NBA playoffs, they are the lottery picks. Each team is given a percentage chance to land the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd pick. The lottery is for those picks. After that, the rest of the order is by seeding.

So, each team has a chance at landing in the top 3, if not, they will return to their seeding, unless a team behind them in seeding lands in the top 3.

It looks a little like this:

1. 250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the #1 pick
2. 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3. 156 combinations, 15.6% chance
4. 119 combinations, 11.9% chance
5. 88 combinations, 8.8% chance
6. 63 combinations, 6.3% chance
7. 43 combinations, 4.3% chance
8. 28 combinations, 2.8% chance
9. 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10. 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11. 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12. 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13. 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14. 5 combinations, 0.5% chance

And here are the chances for each team and their possible landing in the lottery.

Draft Lottery Odds

The Heat's chances
As you can see, the Heat have a 1.1% chance to land the #1 overall pick. They have a 1.3% chance for the 2nd pick and a 1.6% chance for the 3rd pick. Miami has a 91% chance to keep their spot as a 10th pick, and a 9% chance that it falls past 10th, which would then return the pick to the 76ers.

The most likely scenario has the Heat keeping their pick and selecting at #10.

But nobody here at HHH is going to mad if the Heat land in the top 3, am I right?

Side Note
Recent Miami Heat lottery picks: Michael Beasley (2008), Dwyane Wade (2003), Caron Butler (2002)

The Odds History
Twice in the last seven years has a team win a 1.7% chance to win has won the lottery (2008 Bulls and 2013 Cavs). The 1993 Magic are the lowest seeded team to win at 1.52% (11th worst chance). But it hasn't been since the 2004 Magic that the team with the worst record won the lottery.

I wouldn't be holding your breathe for a top 3 pick, what you should hope for is that the Utah Jazz, Phoenix Suns, Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers -- who are all seeded behind the Miami Heat -- don't move up in the lottery. That would result in the Heat being bumped to 11th and not having the pick.