One Fansided 2017 mock draft has Miami Heat trading up to #6 for De’Aaron Fox. This strategy has poor record, so far, during this decade. Not a wise strategy lately.
Fansided’s Sir Charles In Charge proposes giving away Goran Dragic, Josh Richardson, and the 14th pick, to get the 6th pick (De’Aaron Fox) and Bismack Biyombo. The history of draft picks, from this decade, suggest picks #2 to #6 didn’t create All-NBA Team-caliber stars. Not a good swap for Miami.
The 2017 All-NBA Team’s 15 selections featured two top-six selections from the 2010-16 drafts on the squad, and both were chosen #1. No #2 to #6 draft picks, from this decade, made the cut. Strangely 6 later picks from 2010 to 2016, #15, #15, #27, #30, #35, #60, grabbed six spots on the team.
Top-five selections dominate the All-NBA First Team. The second and third tiers have a mix of top-10 picks and later ones. In the current one-and-done environment, basing an entire NBA career on a single AAU season, makes forecasting future NBA success difficult indeed.
Charlotte Hornets would jump on this swap instantly. Did they leak the idea? Giving up on Richardson and the #14 pick to take on Biyombo’s contract makes little sense from Miami’s view.
I feel most outsiders don’t appreciate how special the second half of the season was to Heat fans. Dion Waiters (25 years old), Richardson (24), Justise Winslow (21), Rodney McGruder (25) are just entering the prime of their careers. They need the opportunity to let their talent reach its potential this season.
The top 6 picks of this decade have produced successes such Anthony Davis, John Wall, Karl-Anthony Towns (all #1). Beyond them the #2 to #6 selections (35 in all), haven’t been game-changers. You would think at least one of them would be on the 2017 All-NBA Team.
Scouts can get a better read on players with multiple years of college competition, such Draymond Green. The recent record of draft picks indicate AAU players usually need more than a single college season to become impact players. Pat Riley knows the school of hard knocks is the best teacher, Earvin Johnson and Tim Duncan aside. Even LeBron James, Michael Jordan, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant didn’t earn rings in their first four seasons.
Only two days away, the time for making potential franchise altering decisions looms just ahead. All the hype about the perceived NBA talent level of the early choices ignores the reality of the less than stellar successes thus far.
Two of the #1 picks, from this decade, have lead their teams to losing records. The NBA finals remain a distant dream for all three stars. Let the buyer beware on Thursday evening.