As we head toward the beginning of training camp for the Miami Heat, we will begin to look at some topics that may interest you. One of those is the minute distribution for the roster.
There are averages and matchup changes that will dictate this as well as injuries and such. But for this, we are going to pretend it’s a regular season game and everyone is healthy.
If that were the case, what would the ideal minute distribution look like for the Miami Heat? Here’s my opinion:
Point Guard: Dragic (33), T. Johnson (15)
Shooting Guard: Waiters (31), T. Johnson (9), Richardson (8)
Small Forward: Winslow (31), Richardson (17)
Power Forward: J. Johnson (29), Olynyk (14), Winslow (5)
Center: Whiteside (33), Olynyk (14), Adebayo (1)
That’s a 9-man rotation. And as you can tell there is some things you may notice, and I’d like to talk about them.
Rodney McGruder and Wayne Ellington didn’t make the cut
And that’s sad because both of those guys were huge contributors on last year’s team. Ellington provided some sharp shooting that the Heat desperately needed. And McGruder started 65 games once Winslow went down, averaging 25 minutes. But, if all the guards are healthy, then the time is going to go where the money goes.
And with Dragic, Waiters, Johnson, and Richardson all possessing large multi-year contracts, they are going to have the priority of the minutes. Winslow could be the future of this team as well.
Clearly, these two guys will contribute to the team and get playing time. But if everyone were healthy all the time then I believe these guys would be the priority on the depth chart.
Justise Winslow gets the most minutes on the team
And that’s because he impacts the game in so many ways without demanding or asking for the ball. That kind of guy is important when you have ball dominant players like Dragic and Waiters. He is in the right place at the right time.
And his defensive impact is only going to get greater as he learns the game. Winslow was missed last year and I think he makes this team better. And I think Spo and his staff will play him as long as he stays durable. 36 minutes isn’t an overload, but it is a representation of the impact he can make.
The fluctuation leaves room for multiple lineups
Spo loves his position-less ball and this type of minute distribution enables that completely. Winslow gets a few minutes at power forward, Olynyk gets double impact at the front court, and the three guard lineup will happen plenty with Josh Richardson floating around for 25 minutes.
One thing I didn’t account for is the Heat going big and playing James Johnson at small forward. If this happens it leaves room for Adebayo to get a few more minutes in a rotation and maybe a few less for Josh Richardson or Tyler Johnson.
Bam is a project
I gave him a minute because I think he needs to be mentioned. But really this is an 8-man lineup with Bam getting a look because he has a future with this team. Be patient with him this year.
Now, clearly this was not an algorithm or some statistical formula I used to come up with this. It’s just my opinion, so don’t berate me. I know there is room for McGruder and Ellington, but not much more.
In the comments, tell us your adaptations to this minute distribution and why you are making the changes.