Duncan Robinson surprised me. If you told me this time last year that Duncan Robinson would not only be a staple of the Heat rotation, but one of the best three point shooters in the NBA I wouldn’t have believed you at all. Duncan’s play this year is not only good, it’s elite from a numbers perspective.
Let’s look at last season to get a sense of his improvement. According to Cleaning The Glass, in thirteen games last season Duncan ranked in the 32nd percentile for 3-point percentage (shooting 28% from three). This season, he ranks in the 97th percentile (shooting 45% from three) the same as Klay Thompson in the 17-18 season. Though Duncan isn’t necessarily a focal point of the Heat offense, his ability to heat up (lol) quickly makes him hard to take out of games, He’s a huge reason the Heat were the NBA’s most accurate three point shooting team this season.
Duncan is a specialist, but even with his skills clearly laid out on a scouting report he can still get it going. Like JJ Redick, Robinson has the unique ability to get open and do so often. He’s constantly moving to get open and comes off screens right into a shot. This lets him get a shot off before there’s actually a hand in his face. It also helps that he’s generally unguarded when he’s taking shots from here:
You want to talk about range? pic.twitter.com/bll1IuAbr6— Brandon Di Perno (@Brandon_DiPerno) February 25, 2020
With so many slashers on the Heat having Duncan waiting on the wing for a pass becomes a huge threat.
Prior to the Covid-19 pause Duncan was averaging 5 threes per game over his last 10 games. He was on pace to set two records, the most 3-pointers by any player in either of his first two NBA seasons and the most 3-pointers by a Miami Heat player in one season. Here are all of his threes from this season, there are a lot of them:
There’s no telling what the future holds for Robinson, but hopefully most of it will be spent in a Miami Heat uniform. In a league where three point shooting is so important his value is huge.