Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the NBA. Each week we ask questions of the most plugged-in Miami Heat fans and fans across the country.
Let’s jump into the poll results!
Among the four allotted options for what the Heat should do with their first-round pick, 49 percent of Heat fans prefer they trade the No. 27 pick for a veteran. Potential names could include, but are not limited to: Harrison Barnes, John Collins, Donovan Mitchell, Alec Burks, Bradley Beal, etc.
If Miami went wheeling and dealing for a veteran, however, it would have to package the No. 27 pick with another pick and/or player. That could be any of their available future first-round picks as well as Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus or Omer Yurtseven, among others.
Hypothetically, if a Heat player was hypothetically moved for a veteran, there was an overwhelming No. 1 answer for who Heat fans thought Pat Riley would most likely trade:
Nearly 85 percent of responders (!!!) believe Duncan Robinson, set to make $16.9 million this upcoming season, would be moved if a draft-night trade for a veteran occurs. Given Robinson’s contract relative to the rest of the team, it makes sense — he is the only Heat player not named Kyle Lowry, Bam Adebayo or Jimmy Butler to be making more than $6 million.
If Miami were to trade Robinson and No. 27, at the bare minimum, it would be in a precarious position to acquire the “big fish” if they still desired to. Robinson is Miami’s only so-called “salary-filler” contract ($10-20M) and would be theoretically be utilized as the money-matcher in a bigger transaction. If they’re willing to flip the trade returnee (assuming he had a similar ‘22-23 cap hit) or part with Lowry — expected to make $28.3 million in 2022-23 — then acquiring the “big fish” would still be feasible. Otherwise, it’s all but a pipe dream.
The player who’s selected No. 27 overall is expected to make approximately $1.84 million in his first season, per RealGM. The player can, however, sign between 80 to 120 percent of the scale, meaning the No. 27 pick can make anywhere between $1.47M to $2.21 as a rookie. While it would a marginal financial dent in a trade, the No. 27 could also hypothetically be traded as additional salary in a larger deal.
Heat insider Greg Sylvander of Five Reasons Sports Network reported Thursday that the Heat have “explored” trading for a first-round pick in 2025 and 2026 plus an additional second-round pick tonight, which wasn’t an option in the poll above. Though Sylvander cited that “only a handful” of prospects would have them keeping their No. 27 pick.
Anything can happen, obviously. But in short: It’s very possible the Heat trade No. 27 — whether up, down or out — before or during tonight’s draft. And depending on how it’s moved, it could come at the expense of a Heat player, Robinson or otherwise.
Update: Heat have explored acquiring a future 1st rd pick (likely Top 16 protected, preferably in 25 or 26) + a 2nd rd pick in tonight’s draft for #27 per source.— Greg Sylvander (@GregSylvander) June 23, 2022
Key element to scenario may be a coveted player slipping.
Only handful of prospects would persuade them to keep 27