2022-23 Eastern Conference play-in: Best bets for Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks
Ride with all of these bets at your own discretion.
It’s gameday! The Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks meet in the NBA’s first 2022-23 play-in game Tuesday at 7:30 p.m. ET.
That said, let’s dive into some best bets for the play-in. Usually, I would suggest you fade me. That’s not going to change, so ride with me at your own discretion.
O.K., enough chitter chatter — let’s get into it!
(Disclaimer: All odds are via DraftKings Sportsbook at 10 p.m. ET on April 10.)
Game: Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat
Game line: Heat -5
Hawks first to 25 in 3Q (+135)
The Hawks have been the 12th-most efficient third-quarter offense in the NBA, including the 11th-most efficient (120.7 points per 100 possessions) since Snyder took the helm. The Miami Heat, on the other hand, is the league’s least efficient offense in the third quarter this season, scoring only 108.1 points per 100, more than two points fewer than the next-closest team (Orlando Magic, 110.5). Miami scored 25 points in the third quarter in 46 of their 82 games this season, while Atlanta did it 72 times. The turd quarter exists among Heat lore for a reason, so take the value while it’s hot.
Over 226.5 (-110)
Both teams have trended in the wrong direction defensively. Since the All-Star break, Miami has been the ninth-most porous defense, while the Hawks have been the sixth-most porous, surrendering over 118 points per 100 possessions.
The over has hit in Miami’s last five games and 13 of its last 17, including over 226 points nine of those times; Atlanta’s over has also hit each of its last five games and in seven of its last 10 games. Plus, Hawks’ games have gone over 226 points in each of their last 16 games. When these two teams met in their March back-to-back, they scored 226 points in one game and 258 in the other. Even if there are early jitters, expect another high-scoring affair Tuesday.
Jimmy Butler o0.5 3-pointers (-135)
Tell me if you’ve heard these exact — or some iteration of — two words before: Playoff Jimmy. Sure, we don’t want to remember his final shot in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals, but when the lights shine brightest, Butler is at his best. And he’s been more willing to take 3s come playoff time.
Last postseason, he attempted nearly four per game at a 33.8 percent clip — hitting at least one triple in 14 of his 17 playoff games. He’s knocked down at least one in four of his last six games, and is shooting 48.1 percent from deep since the All-Star break, albeit on 1.4 attempts. Asking for just one triple at -135 might not be the best value, but it’s only one 3-pointer. So I like my odds.
De’Andre Hunter o14.5 points (-120)
Hunter was the Hawks’ best player in their one series against Miami last year, averaging 23.0 points on 53.2/41.7/80.0 shooting splits, including 24 points in Game 4 and 35 in Game 5. I don’t think that scoring output will replicate itself this year because of the added presence of Dejounte Murray, but Hunter has scored more than 14 points in three of their four meetings this season and I think it’s easy to foresee that mark getting exceeded if it’s a high-scoring affair.
Bam Adebayo o32.5 PRA (points + rebounds + assists) (-110)
Adebayo has averaged 39 PRA against the Hawks this season, surpassing 32 PRA in three of their four meetings this season. I don’t mean barely, either; in those three games, he’s averaging 41.3 PRA. He hasn’t been as productive since the All-Star break since teams began over-helping and packing the paint against him. He’s averaging 28 PRA (excluding Sunday’s game) compared to the 35 beforehand, but 32.5 is still a number I like in a game where possessions will be an abundance.
Favorite same-game parlay (+390):
Miami Heat ML (-215)
30+ Jimmy Butler points + assists (-285)
30+ Bam Adebayo points + rebounds (-105)
o222.5 points (-170)
No real explanation here. Go big or go home.