Heat turn the tables on season narrative

Miami has a 2-1 series lead on the No. 1 overall seed.

Photo by Ryan Spencer on Unsplash

A week ago today, the Miami Heat geared up to take on the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 1 of their first-round series. Miami had to go through two play-in games, and many fans had wanted the Heat to miss the playoffs. The consensus was that it would be a quick series win for the Bucks. All 18 ESPN experts picked Milwaukee to win the series, with all but five saying it’d be in four or five games.

Here we are, a week later. The Heat have a 2-1 series lead on the No. 1 overall seed.

Yes, Giannis Anteotkounmpo has only played in 11 minutes this season. But the Heat have also played without Tyler Herro, who was their second-leading scorer this year. And now it appears Victor Oladipo will likely miss time after suffering a nasty knee injury and denying a stretcher to head to the locker room. (On the plus side, it appears Jimmy Butler will be ready to play in Game 4 after suffering a bruised glute.)

Even after Antetokounmpo’s injury, the Bucks were favored to win both Games 2 (by 5.5 points) and 3 (by two points). That’s because the Heat had the 25th-ranked offense in the NBA during the regular season. Miami even had a net rating of -0.3, signaling that their 44-38 record was an overachievement.

Yet we’ve seen the Heat offense operate at a much higher level in Games 1 and 3 than we did throughout the entire regular season. A Heat team that struggled from 3-point range all year has found more luck in the postseason, shooting 16-for-33 from deep last night after going an incredible 15-for-25 in Game 1. Duncan Robinson’s 5-of-6 night from 3 was huge when Bam Adebayo struggled offensively.

And Butler has again played at his Playoff Jimmy peak after last playoff’s historic run. He’s dismissed all concerns that he’d have a repeat of his abysmal performance in the 2021 first-round playoff series against the Bucks, when Bryn Forbes out-scored him. Butler has had his way against anyone, including Jrue Holiday.

I said a week ago that the Heat’s attitude should be, “No one’s counting you in, so what do you have to lose?” Even with a 2-1 series lead, the Bucks remain favored to pull it out. Antetokounmpo may return on Monday. But these wins should give the Heat more confidence, even without Herro and Oladipo. What do you have to lose?