What could the Miami Heat's postseason rotation look like?
What could the Miami Heat's postseason rotation look like?
Let's throw some darts and project the postseason rotation!
The 2022-23 postseason has arrived. The Miami Heat hasn’t necessarily clinched a “playoff berth” yet, per se, but is one win away. Ahead of its Tuesday evening play-in contest against the Atlanta Hawks, let’s try to prognosticate what the Heat rotation could look like.
Starting 5:
Gabe Vincent
2022-23 stats: 9.4 PPG, 2.5 APG, 0.9 SPG, 40.2 FG%, 33.4 3P%, 53.3 TS%, 9.0 PER
Skinny: There’s occasional lightning in a bottle with Gabe Vincent; he sunk a season-high six triples against Detroit last weekend, scored 21 points against the Knicks on March 29 and posted back-to-back 28- and 27-point performances against the Milwaukee Bucks in early January. Vincent is Miami’s best point-of-attack hound and becomes that much more valuable if he’s serviceable offensively, especially as a catch-and-shoot threat from distance.
Tyler Herro
2022-23 stats: 20.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.2 APG, 43.9 FG%, 37.8 3P%, 56.6 TS%, 15.3 PER
Skinny: Herro’s been inconsistent at times throughout the season, but has really stepped up the last month. Over his last 17 games, not including Sunday’s when he only played nine minutes, he’s averaging 20.6 points and 5.0 rebounds, shooting 46.8 percent from the floor, 40.9 percent from deep (8.1 attempts) and a near-perfect 97.7 percent from the charity stripe. This will be a big postseason for Herro, who has been a subpar postseason performer (in part due to injury) outside of his 37-point Game 4 against Boston in the bubble. It’s his time to prove the naysayers wrong.
Max Strus
2022-23 stats: 11.5 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 41.0 FG%, 35.0 3P%, 55.7 TS%, 10.8 PER
Skinny: Eerily similar to last season, Strus was once again a late-season addition to the starting lineup, this time replacing Kevin Love. Strus has struggled shooting from beyond the arc most of the season, but has knocked down 40.9 percent of his 5.5 triple tries since the start of March, including 43.2 percent (5.9 attempts) over his last 15 games. He’s slowly, but surely getting hot at the right time. If Strus can capitalize on his open looks and be one of Miami’s most effective spot-up threats, the Heat is in a much better spot offensively.
Jimmy Butler
2022-23 stats: 22.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 5.3 APG, 1.8 SPG, 53.9 FG%, 35.0 3P%, 64.7 TS%, 27.6 PER
Skinny: Fairly obvious, right? Jimmy Butler has been Miami’s best player in the second half of the season; since the All-Star break, he’s averaged 25.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, 5.9 assists and 1.5 steals on 61.6/48.1/84.9 (72.3 TS%). No, that’s not a typo -- he’s been that efficient over his latest 20-game sample. Double it, and he’s averaging nearly 24-6-5-2 steals on 66.2 percent true shooting. That’s elite two-way basketball for nearly half a season. While this season’s been mired by inconsistency, if Butler — who’s been arguably their most consistent player — is healthy, Miami always has a *chance* to make life trouble for an opponent.
Bam Adebayo
2022-23 stats: 20.4 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.2 SPG, 54.0 FG%, 59.2 TS%, 20.1 PER
Skinny: Another “duh” choice. While Adebayo hasn’t held up well to his standards, he’s still been an elite defender and continues to shine bright offensively. While he’s struggled to get past defenders to the rim, he’s developed a consistently reliable 5-10 foot in-between game in the middle of the lane. He’s also seen more help as a roller as the years aged, so look for Miami to push him in transition more with more deep seals on possessions where he’s not grabbing rebounds. Feed Adebayo the rock, and you’re most likely going to get a good result on the other side.
Near-locks to play roles off bench:
Caleb Martin
2022-23 stats: 9.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 46.4 FG%, 35.6 3P%, 57.1 TS%, 11.4 PER
Skinny: Whether he’s starting or coming off the bench, Martin’s consistent production has been one of the brightest spots, individually, from this Heat season. While he held up, for the most part, in its starting five, he’s flourished in the bench role — similarly to last season. The efficiency has dipped slightly in recent games, but he’s still averaging 8.9 points and 4.1 rebounds in 27.8 minutes on 49.3/34.5/87.8 shooting splits since the All-Star break. Barring none, Martin’s energy, hustle and wherewithal defensively are contagious -- which Miami will collectively need if they want to make any sort of noise.
Kevin Love
2022-23 stats (w/ Heat): 7.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 38.8 FG%, 29.7 3P%, 53.5 TS%, 12.3 PER
Skinny: The Kevin Love experience in Miami has been … interesting. Miami completely altered its pet ball-screen coverage to cater to Love, who’s gotten hunted like a deer. The results were unfruitful; Love’s shot also wasn’t going in, limiting his offensive upside outside his above-average playmaking in the high-post (and in outlets). But Love has since moved to the bench, where he’s been a plus-37 as Miami’s backup 5. I was plenty skeptical of it, but it might end up being a perfect role for him. He becomes much more valuable with its bench units in Spoelstra’s patented 2-3 zone; in zone, he’s not as big of a liability in pick-and-roll while being in a better position to draw charges and secure rebounds, even though he’s not the most vaunted rim protector. Regardless, one thing will be certain: He will have a rotation role in the playoffs, at least to start.
Kyle Lowry
2022-23 stats: 11.2 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 5.1 APG, 40.4 FG%, 34.5 3P%, 56.5 TS%, 12.6 PER
Skinny: Since Lowry’s returned, he’s been a much better version of himself off the bench. In 10 games, he’s averaged 7.9 points, 3.2 rebounds and 4.5 assists in 23.1 minutes, shooting 46.6 percent from the floor and 42.5 percent from 3-point range. The Heat don’t need him to be Raptors Lowry, but a serviceable table-setter for its bench units that lack primary and secondary (self) creation, plus another initiator to take the load of Butler/Herro/Adebayo when the offense mucks up.
Stay ready, so you don’t have to get ready:
Victor Oladipo
2022-23 stats: 10.7 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 3.5 APG, 39.7 FG%, 33.0 3P%, 51.3 TS%, 10.6 PER
Skinny: For much of the second half of last season, Oladipo’s role in the rotation was not set in stone — and, frankly, at times, non-existent. Though Oladipo’s name was called upon in Game 5 of the first round against Atlanta without Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry, who were both out due to injury. Oladipo tallied 23 points and re-etched his role in the rotation, also making measurable impacts defensively in the Eastern Conference Finals, even if he wasn’t always filling up the stat sheet offensively. His role has been more consistent in 2022-23, though it’s waned of late. But don’t be surprised if Oladipo’s name is called again in another big spot; sure, the experience will be one heck of a roller coaster, but as we’ve seen plenty of times before, Oladipo’s capable of playing impactful basketball on either end of the hardwood.
Cody Zeller
2022-23 stats: 6.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 62.7 FG%, 65.9 TS%, 16.4 PER
Skinny: It’s a small sample of production, but Zeller hasn’t been the worst backup big in the world. He’s averaging 16.2 points and 10.5 rebounds (4.2 offensive) per 36 minutes. That’s very strong production in a limited role. Though the only problem is that Miami’s been objectively bad he’s the only big on the floor — featuring a minus-17.7 NET Rating in 173 minutes (excluding Sunday). If anything, Zeller will likely be sharing the floor with Butler, who has built an intriguing two-man partnership with Zeller (albeit a small sample). They’re plus 3.8 points per 100 possessions when they share the floor together, so there’s hope.
Haywood Highsmith
2022-23 stats: 4.4 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 43.1 FG%, 33.9 3P%, 51.7 TS%, 8.5 PER
Skinny: When Miami had a top-five defense before the All-Star break, Highsmith, believe it or not, was a big reason for that. He’s lengthy, can hold his own at the point-of-attack and is pretty disruptive in the passing lanes. Highsmith is a good plug-and-play four next to either Love or Zeller because of his complementary play, though his role has shrunk significantly in the second half of the season, when Miami’s defense has been (by far) the shakiest. His fluctuating role has been confusing, to say the least, but don’t be surprised if Highsmith somehow finds a way to impact any postseason game (defensively).
We sure do need to beat the dirty birds as the other 2 teams have dominated us this year.Trust spo and riles to have a winning game plan in place for this game then on to burn the bums from Boston.
Every team has a "punchers chance" specially if its just a one game duel. So these birdies has exactly that. A chance. But for this list here, thanks Matt! we look better, if not far better than Atl. Go Heat!